A new analysis by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) suggests that the United States could see a dramatic reduction in its federal deficit—up to $4 trillion—if current tariff policies remain in place over the next decade.

According to the CBO, the effective tariff rate on imported goods has surged by 18 percentage points compared to last year. If sustained, this shift could shrink primary deficits by approximately $3.3 trillion. Additionally, reduced reliance on federal borrowing would lower interest payments by an estimated $700 billion, bringing the total projected deficit reduction to $4 trillion.

The findings reflect the fiscal impact of President Donald J. Trump’s trade agenda, which prioritizes revenue generation through elevated import duties.

For further details, the original analysis is available on The White House website.